Monday, October 6, 2014

Study Alert: Top Countries at risk of Ebola by October 24

Top Countries at risk of Ebola by October

The chance that a person who is infected with Ebola reached different countries has risen from minimal in the coming weeks, according to scientists. France is the country at greatest risk with over 75 per cent. Researchers have in the online scientific journal PLoS Current Outbreaks published a study based on normal traffic and the distribution patterns of Ebola.

The analysis shows that France is the European country with 75 percent, by far the biggest risk to gett the Ebola virus befor 24 October. This is mainly because people live in the affected countries in West Africa, French-speaking and relatively many flights go to France. Scientists have relied on the number of flights that normally leaves for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. In reality, Air France no longer fly to Liberia and Sierra Leone.

For Britain the probability is at 50 percent. That has to do with the high number of flights from West Africa that goes into London via Heathrow airport. The actual rate will be lower.For example, British Airways no longer flies to countries where an Ebola outbreak and that is not included in the calculations.

For the Netherlands, the probability that someone with Ebola comes only a few percent.Airline KLM flying alone on Nigeria and not the much more heavily affected countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Every day there is a KLM flight to Nigeria. Since the Ebola outbreak that number has remained the same, let KLM know. Moreover, the outbreak in Nigeria for weeks is under control.

The chance that Ebola Belgium reached a lot bigger. The researchers write that there is a chance of 40 percent that a traveler with Ebola enters Belgium. Brussels Airlines flies to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

The researchers for the analysis took the normal number of flights. If traffic to the affected countries by 80 per cent decrease compared to normal traffic, the risk for France, 75 percent drops to 25 percent. For Britain means that a drop to 15 percent.

The World Health Organization (WHO) calls incidentally airlines especially not to fly to the worst-affected countries.

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